Military Assessment — Outlook for Israel 2016

By Sarah Ann Haves

Israel’s alleged air strike in Syria, December 19, 2015, which killed Lebanese arch terrorist Samir Kuntar was, most likely, planned over a long period of time. Reportedly, Kuntar had become a faithful Iranian operative in Lebanon at the time of his death.

Lebanese terrorists responded to the Israeli attack within 24 hours, firing three rockets at Israeli communities in the Western Galilee. Israel then attacked targets in southern Lebanon, with a message from the IDF that any attempt to harm Israeli sovereignty and the security of its citizens would be met with a harsh response.

The north is heating up on the heels of a warning from IDF commanders in mid-December that citizens on the Israeli border with Syria must prepare for a future missile war.

The IDF has set up a fully functional sub district on the Golan Heights, intent on producing a culture of readiness among Israeli residents there. Without a real plan to help the population with their sealed rooms, the Home Front Command is recommending that residents fortify their own rooms. The IDF plans to move much of the population out of the north to the south if and when war breaks out. There hasn’t been a budget for the implementation of home front security measures to-date. But, the northern command has been preparing civilian authorities to help with future emergencies. Response teams are being set up in local areas, yet it is not calming the fears of Israelis living there who hope that Hezbollah will not retaliate for the murder of Kuntar.

Meanwhile, Israel has had to deal with a complex set of military problems on its Syrian border. Russia’s decision to support Syrian leader Bashar Assad has complicated Israel’s defense capabilities in the north. In early December, Russia reportedly started bringing advanced T-90 tanks to Syria. The modern tank, which has proven itself in battle in Russia’s recent wars, will eventually help replace those of the Syrian army. Israel is concerned that the Russians will train Hezbollah and Iranian tank crews in Syria on how to use the advanced tanks. This could hurt Israel’s ground forces on the Golan Heights.

Russia has also deployed SA-17 surface-to-air missile systems, as well as the S-400 air defense system in Syria, causing some Israeli leaders to be concerned about Russia’s expansion of its military presence in Syria. It not only gives Iran and Hezbollah a security umbrella to build up their forces in Syria, but it also means that Russia is prepared to stay there for a long time.

The S-400 “Triumph” missile defense system has a range that takes up half of Israel’s airspace, including Ben Gurion Airport, and challenges Israel’s QME (Qualitative Military Edge). It is a direct threat to Israel’s air superiority. Russia is coordinating with the IDF in the aerial, naval and electromagnetic arenas, but at the same time, is changing the balance of power in the Middle East, without Israel being able to do much about it. In an effort at cooperation, Russia has turned a blind eye when Israel strikes at Syrian munitions depots, or at Syrian arms transfers to Hezbollah.  Sometimes, Israel is able to stop these shipments from reaching their destination, but not in all cases.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently dared Turkey to fly over Syrian airspace. The rift between Turkey and Russia, due to a Turkish F-16 fighter jet that downed a Russian SU-24 fighter jet on the Syrian-Turkish border, November 24, continues to be a source of strain and worry for countries involved in the Syrian conflict. Israel, as well as the U.S. led coalition against ISIS, is coordinating efforts with Russia to “de-conflict” military operations in Syria. But, one errant missile could ignite a new Middle East war.

Obviously, Israel had to warn Russia and the U.S. of the impending strike against Samir Kuntar in Syria, in order to make sure that other air forces were not operating in the area of the strike. That, in itself, is uncomfortable for Israel’s theater of operations, because it must coordinate with friendly outside forces. Friendly now, but what about in the future? There is no guarantee that Russian-Israeli relations will remain on good terms. Russia continues to indicate it will sell the S-300 advanced missile system to Iran and Syria, which Israel fervently opposes.

In the south, Hamas is less of a threat for Israel than Hezbollah in the north. Israel’s deterrence has been working, effectively, after a brutal war with Hamas in Gaza during the summer of 2014. However, what concerns Israel, now, is deepening cooperation between Hamas and an Islamic State terror group in the Sinai that has been involved, in the past, with launching attacks against Israel.

Hamas is not only building up its forces, again, in Gaza, it is also operating out of Hebron and has become a radicalizing influence within Arab villages in the Gush Etzion region. Lone Arab attacks against Israeli civilians continue, and the IDF is embracing for more shootings, stabbings, and car ramming attacks in Jerusalem and the West Bank (Judea and Samaria). What Israel does not want to see happen is a multi-front war… within the nation and on its borders.

Concerned about safety and security for the Jewish homeland, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently traveled to Washington, D.C., hoping to solidify a commitment from U.S. President Barack Obama on increased military aid for the Jewish State in the coming years.

Israel’s aid package from the U.S. for 2016, recently signed into law by Obama, includes $3.1 billion that will be spent on protecting Israel’s skies. Included in the package are missiles acquired for Israel’s anti-missile defense systems, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow 2 and 3 systems. American weapons arsenals will also be filled in Israel for emergency use in future Middle East wars, if Israel must replenish its arms quickly.

Israel has reportedly let the U.S. know what its special military needs will be in 2017 and over the next 20 years, including a desire for $5 billion a year in military aid. This is due to Israel’s concern about its security needs after the West recently signed a nuclear agreement with Iran.

Israel is looking to obtain the new F-35 fighter planes, including several of the “B” models, soon to become operational. Israel would also like to acquire F-15 stealth fighters, V-22 Osprey aircraft-helicopters, and more Arrow 3 missiles that can add an additional layer of protection to the Arrow 2.

In conclusion, Israel must deal with an increased terrorist presence on the Golan Heights because of Iranian operatives, Hezbollah, Al-Nusra Front, ISIS, and other terrorist entities acting inside Syria in 2016. Israel’s Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon has re-iterated that he won’t tolerate weapons trafficking to terrorists operating in Syria; cross-border fire from within Syria; or chemical weapons distribution to terrorists.

Russia’s advanced weapons systems, brought into Syria to prop up Assad’s regime, are game changers in 2016, and complicate Israel’s efforts to defend the Jewish State from its enemies.

The actions of Hamas, in coordinating its activities with terror groups in Gaza and the Sinai, brings ISIS closer to Israel’s southern border in the coming year. Moreover, terrorist groups operating against Egyptian forces in the Sinai could receive anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, as well as advanced weapons systems from ISIS, to continue their targeting campaigns. This could also include attacks on Israeli southern forces. Meanwhile, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority continue to spread incitement so that the current Intifada (Uprising) is expected to continue into 2016.

Israel remains strong, and on high alert, against unwanted infiltrators that attempt to attack Israeli Jewish communities. It will not allow any state, sub-state, or terrorist entity to harm its security or sovereignty regardless of who its enemies are. This includes those who, today, claim to be Israel’s friends, and tomorrow, may not be.

“Blessed be the Lord, my rock, who trains my hands for war, and my fingers for battle.” (NAS)  Psalm 144:1

(c) 2015 Messianic Vision all rights reserved. This article is not reproducible except with permisson from Messianic Vision.

Unless otherwise indicated, Scripture taken from the New King James Version. Copyright ©1979, 1980, 1982 by Thomas Nelson, Inc. Used by permission. All rights reserved.

Ms. Haves is a news analyst, reporting on political, diplomatic, military and spiritual issues in Israel and the nations.